| 马艺方,玄兆辉,袁立科.英国政府多层次技术预见体系的经验及启示[J].全球科技经济瞭望,2025,40(9):10~17 |
| 英国政府多层次技术预见体系的经验及启示 |
| Experience and Enlightenment of the U.K. Government’s Multi-level Technology Foresight System |
| 投稿时间：2025-07-27 |
| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.1009-8623.2025.09.002 |
| 中文关键词: 英国；技术预见；多层次体系；前瞻治理 |
| 英文关键词: U.K.; technology foresight; multi-level system; anticipatory governance |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 76 |
| 全文下载次数: 66 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 英国的技术预见体系历经起步、调整阶段后，于 2002 年进入稳定发展期，逐步形成独具特
色的多层次技术预见体系。该体系在内容上以“滚动项目”与“持续扫描”同步推进；在方法上构建“未
来工具包”，多种工具因事制宜选择应用；在职能上形成“研究 + 支持”的双轮机制，在开展研究工作
的同时，推动能力建设、资源共享及跨部门协作。英国的技术预见体系实现从“预测分析”向“前瞻性
治理”的范式转变，有效激发系统活力、增强跨部门协作能力，提高政府对不确定环境的应对能力，
促进多元主体协同学习与共识形成。其经验为中国在拓展技术预见研究内容范畴、构建规范方法体系
及形成跨部门协作网络等方面提供了有益借鉴。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| As one of the earliest countries to carry out technology foresight, the United Kingdom has
developed a distinctive multi-level technology foresight system. It entered a stable development stage in 2002
after going through the initial and adjustment stages. In terms of content, the system advances “rolling projects”
and “continuous scanning” simultaneously. In terms of methods, it has developed “Futures Toolkit” that integrates
various tools, which can be selected and applied according to specific circumstances. In terms of functions, it has
formed a dual-wheel mechanism of research & support, which not only conducts technology foresight research but
also promotes capacity building, resource sharing and cross-departmental collaboration. To cope with the complex
and volatile global environment and meet the diverse needs of decision-makers, the U.K. multi-level technology
foresight system is constantly optimized and shifted from a “predictive tool” to an “anticipatory governance
tool”, thereby enhancing systemic dynamism, strengthening interdepartmental collaboration, improving the
government’s capacity to respond to uncertainties, and facilitating collaborative learning and consensus-building
among multiple stakeholders. Its experience provides valuable enlightenment for China in expanding the
research content of technology foresight, establishing a standardized methodological system, and forming cross-departmental collaborative networks |
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