| 陈双凯.全球聚变能源技术和商业化发展的态势研究[J].全球科技经济瞭望,2025,40(9):37~45 |
| 全球聚变能源技术和商业化发展的态势研究 |
| Development and Commercialization Status of Global Fusion Energy Technology |
| 投稿时间：2024-06-09 |
| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.1009-8623.2025.09.005 |
| 中文关键词: 核聚变能源；商业化；技术发展；研发态势；产业态势 |
| 英文关键词: fusion energy; commercialization; policy analysis; R&D landscape; industrial landscape |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 90 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 系统分析了全球核聚变能源技术与商业化发展的现状与趋势。通过政策分析、技术路线研究、
研发态势分析和产业发展路径四维研判方法，梳理了主要国家在政策支持、资金投入、法规标准等方
面的举措，评估了磁约束聚变与惯性约束聚变两条技术路线的研究进展、瓶颈问题（如等离子体稳态、
氚循环、材料、经济性）及研发焦点，考察了私营企业主导的多元化产业化模式。研究发现，全球核聚
变竞赛已上升为国家战略，虽然相关技术取得关键突破，但仍面临工程化挑战，呈现国家主导基础研
发与私营驱动创新并行的双轨态势。基于研判结果，提出了中国发展核聚变能源的策略建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study aims to systematically analyze the current status and trends in global fusion energy technology
and its commercialization. Employing a four-dimensional analytical framework encompassing policy analysis,
technology roadmap assessment, R&D landscape evaluation, and industrial development pathway examination, the
research synthesizes initiatives undertaken by major nations in areas such as policy support, funding allocation, and
regulatory standards. It evaluates the progress, bottlenecks (e.g., plasma stability, tritium cycle, materials, economic
viability), and current R&D focus areas of the two technological approaches: magnetic confinement and inertial
confinement. The investigation also examines the diverse industrial models led by private enterprises. Key findings
indicate that the global fusion race has become a national strategic priority. While critical technological breakthroughs
have been achieved, significant engineering challenges remain. A dual-track approach is emerging, characterized by
state-led fundamental research operating in parallel with privately driven innovation. Based on the analytical outcomes,
strategic recommendations for China’s nuclear fusion energy development are proposed. |
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