| 姚逸雪,钟卫,袁立科.美国技术预见的历程、实践及启示[J].全球科技经济瞭望,2025,(11-12):1~9,64 |
| 美国技术预见的历程、实践及启示 |
| History, Practice, and Insights of U.S. Technology Foresight |
| 投稿时间：2025-09-25 |
| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.1009-8623.2025.11-12.001 |
| 中文关键词: 美国；技术预测；技术预见；关键技术选择；国家创新体系 |
| 英文关键词: the United States; technology forecasting; technology foresight; critical technology selection; national innovation system |
| 基金项目:中国科学技术发展战略研究院创新型国家建设监测和智库建设专项“技术预测方法工具箱开发及应用研究”（NTF2309）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 技术预见（Technology Foresight）是研判未来科技发展方向并引导资源配置的重要政策工具。
以美国为研究对象，系统回顾其技术预见的发展历程与主要实践。通过文献分析与案例梳理，重点
考察美国对技术预见早期发展的贡献，以及联邦政府近年来开展的两轮关键技术选择活动。美国虽
未形成集中式、制度化的国家技术预见体系，但通过关键技术选择及多元政策工具，在科技优先事
项设定中发挥了替代性作用。这一路径与美国自由放任的政策传统和分散化科技治理结构密切相关。
阐述了美国技术预见实践的主要特征，并分析了其对中国开展国家技术预见活动的启示。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Technology foresight (TF) is an important policy instrument for assessing future directions of science
and technology (S&T) development and guiding the allocation of resources. This paper examines the United States
as a case study and provides a systematic review of the evolution and main practices of TF in the U.S. Drawing on
document analysis and case studies, the study focuses on U.S. contributions to the early development of TF as well
as two recent rounds of critical technology selection undertaken at the federal level. The findings show that, although
the United States has not established a centralized and institutionalized national TF system, it has played a functional
substitute role in setting S&T priorities through critical technology selection and a range of complementary
policy instruments. This pathway is closely associated with the U.S. tradition of laissez-faire policymaking and its
decentralized system of S&T governance. This paper summarizes the key characteristics of U.S. TF practices and
discusses their implications for the development of national TF initiatives in China. |
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